THE PAYOUT PULSE

Your daily signal on private credit, AI, and the future of alternative assets.

Date: 18 December 2025

Focus: Private Credit • Alternatives • Market Moves

Today’s Stories

The Payout Summary

Private credit continues to emerge as a dynamic growth area heading into 2026, driven by increasing institutional interest and innovative financing approaches. Guggenheim’s outlook underlines a sustained expansion, particularly fueled by the integration of artificial intelligence in investment decision-making, signaling a broader industry shift toward data-driven strategies to optimize risk and return.

New private credit vehicles targeting underserved segments, such as Bonside’s platform financing brick-and-mortar businesses, highlight the sector’s adaptability in meeting specific borrower needs and unlocking substantial market opportunities. Mubadala’s launch of a global real estate debt fund further exemplifies how major institutional players are diversifying across geographies, particularly in Asia-Pacific, aiming to capitalize on demand for alternative credit products amid constrained traditional lending.

However, the sector’s rapid growth is tempered by heightened scrutiny around governance and fraud risks, as underscored by the Tricolor CEO’s fraud charges, prompting investors to tighten risk assessments and due diligence frameworks. At the same time, undervalued vehicles like Golub Capital present compelling opportunities, offering attractive yields and discount-driven returns for discerning investors prepared to navigate this evolving market landscape.

In sum, private credit is positioned for robust growth fueled by innovation and strategic expansion but requires vigilance amid intensifying regulatory and operational risks.

Key Takeaways

  • Private Credit Expansion:

    Institutional interest and innovative AI-driven approaches are driving sustained growth in private credit through 2026, presenting diverse investment opportunities.

  • Market Niches:

    New credit vehicles targeting underserved sectors like brick-and-mortar firms offer attractive risk-adjusted returns and broaden the private credit landscape.

  • Geographic Diversification:

    Global real estate debt funds, especially those focusing on Asia-Pacific and Europe, reflect strategic capital allocation to expanding alternative credit markets.

  • Governance Risks Heightened:

    Recent fraud cases emphasize the need for enhanced due diligence and risk controls, urging investors to prioritize transparency and oversight in credit portfolios.

  • Valuation Opportunities:

    Underpriced assets such as Golub Capital offer high-yield potential, encouraging tactical allocations in quality private credit investments amid market volatility.

  • AI Integration:

    Adoption of artificial intelligence tools is reshaping underwriting and portfolio management, increasing efficiency and potentially improving returns.

  • Investor Vigilance Required:

    Balancing growth with risk management remains critical as private credit markets evolve, making thorough credit analysis and regulatory awareness essential.

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