THE PAYOUT PULSE
Your daily signal on private credit, AI, and the future of alternative assets.
Date: 11 December 2025
Focus: Private Credit • Alternatives • Market Moves
Today’s Stories
- Agencies rescind 2013 leveraged loan guidelines that helped spur private credit boom – PitchBook
- Demand for private credit still strong despite ‘sensational’ headlines, asset managers say
- BX: AI-driven infrastructure, private credit, and wealth channels fuel growth amid resilient markets
- Apollo CEO Marc Rowan has an answer for the ‘frustrating’ chatter about the term ‘private credit’
- Mega-deals propel US direct lending volume – PitchBook
- Ares Management (ARES) Soars on S&P 500 Inclusion: Latest Stock News, Q3 2025 Results and 2026 Forecast
- Apollo’s Rowan Sees Market Makers Coming for Private Credit
- Blue Owl Capital Is A Tangled Web
- Fitch Ratings: North American 2026 Leverage Finance Outlook Neutral
- AIR raises $6.1m to modernise private credit ratings with AI
- Is Blackstone (BX) Using AI And Infrastructure Deals To Reframe Its Private Credit Risk Story?
- US private credit defaults to ease in 2026, but fragility to persist, says BofA
The Payout Summary
The private credit market is navigating a complex landscape defined by regulatory shifts, robust deal flow, and technological innovation, particularly the integration of AI-driven analytics and infrastructure investments. The recent rescission of the 2013 leveraged loan guidelines signals a potential recalibration of underwriting standards, primarily affecting middle market lending, while leaving core market segments relatively stable. Concurrently, elevated activity in US direct lending—propelled by mega-deals—demonstrates sustained investor appetite despite competing narratives in the media about sector risks.
Institutional players such as Apollo and Blackstone are strategically addressing liquidity and risk perceptions, with market makers emerging to enhance tradeability within private credit, thus fostering greater market transparency and investor access. AI-powered solutions and infrastructure investments are increasingly central to portfolio strategies, reflecting the growing intersection of private credit, technology, and alternative asset channels. These trends underpin a cautiously optimistic outlook for private credit performance, with a nuanced understanding of sector fragility.
Credit conditions remain balanced, as Fitch’s neutral 2026 outlook aligns with BofA’s assessment of easing defaults tempered by persistent vulnerabilities. Investors and asset managers should tailor risk management frameworks to account for these dynamics, emphasizing thorough due diligence in complex fund structures, exemplified by recent scrutiny of entities like Blue Owl Capital. The rise of AI-enabled credit ratings and analytics further emphasizes the evolution of market intelligence and the competitive advantage it may confer.
Overall, private credit offers compelling opportunities supported by resilient demand and innovation, yet requires vigilant calibration to evolving underwriting, liquidity, and structural risks. Enhanced transparency, informed by leadership initiatives and technological advances, should drive more precise capital allocation and portfolio diversification in 2026 and beyond.
Key Takeaways
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Regulatory Reset:
The rescission of leveraged loan guidelines may shift underwriting norms, signaling opportunities in middle market lending while maintaining core market stability.
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Robust Deal Flow:
US direct lending volumes are surging, driven by mega-deals, indicating strong investor demand and a competitive lending landscape.
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AI and Infrastructure Integration:
Investment strategies are increasingly leveraging AI-driven analytics and infrastructure assets to reshape risk profiles and capture growth in private credit.
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Market Liquidity Evolution:
The rise of market makers in private credit enhances liquidity and transparency, expanding institutional investor access and portfolio diversification.
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Credit Quality Outlook:
Expect easing defaults in 2026 amid ongoing fragility, warranting disciplined risk management and close monitoring of interest rate impacts.
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Structural Risk Awareness:
Complex fund structures, as seen in Blue Owl Capital, require heightened scrutiny to avoid mispriced investments and manage hidden risks effectively.
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Enhanced Credit Intelligence:
AI-powered private credit rating platforms promise improved accuracy and efficiency, potentially transforming investment decision frameworks.
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